20th May 2012
A few days ago I started doing some simple research into trying to prove that UFO sightings here on earth were not possible and what are reported as such were hoaxes or natural phenomena that could be either explained or not.
I have felt a slight sense of alarm at the almost manic levels of excitement displayed by some for the so-called increase in alien activity and the prospect of the end of the world - again. There is a misguided belief that the Maya Calendar ends on 21st December 2012 and that this marks the end of the universe or some such thing*.
I thought I would be able to use some universal constants such as E=mc² to prove that it would not be possible for aliens to travel the huge distances necessary to come and see us but I might be wrong.
The Big Bang occurred 14 billion years ago and earth is about 4.54 billion years old, plus or minus 0.05 billion years. If we could measure our distance from the centre of the Big Bang, we might be able to calculate the distance of our nearest alien neighbours capable of space- and perhaps even time-travel.
However, it is wrong to think about the Big Bang as a normal kind of explosion with a centre from which the contents of the bomb exit in an ever increasing and three dimensional arc. The Big Bang does not have a centre as such as it occurred everywhere at the same time - it's best to think about the Big Bang as being like the surface of an infinite balloon which expands equally in all directions at the same time.
It is possible to calculate or estimate how long is required for a civilisation to develop in the right conditions to be able to achieve certain fundamentals required for the survival of the species. If a civilisation can survive long enough, it will be able to develop technologies that we can only dream of. It is possible to imagine an alien life form that might be capable of travelling at the speed of light.
However, before this can be possible, the priority for a civilisation is the survival of certain epochal events. The most common such event that can threaten the continuation of a species is a meteor collision. The second is an ice age. Catastrophic meteor collisions occur about once every 2-3 thousand years and ice ages on planets capable of fostering life every 10 thousand years or so. If a civilisation can develop to such a level as to be able to keep in tact all that has been learnt up to and following these two events, then they might possibly be able to develop the ability to travel at speeds capable of carrying out inter-galactic expeditions.
There are four possible types of civilisation measured in terms of being able to harness the powers required to make the leap to the next level. We are a Type 0 Civilisation which has found ways to extract resources from our planet and to generate power from these resources.
The greatest source of energy in our solar system is, of course, the sun and we at the moment harness about one millionth of the energy from the sun that reaches our planet. However, another one billion times that energy is dissipated from the sun in directions that do not hit our planet. One million billionths of the possible energy from the sun is all that we can manage at the moment.
For a species to be able to survive, it needs to be able to ensure that its planet survives and this means that not only ensuring that its actions do not lead to its destruction but that it can also gather enough energy to protect it from natural occurrences. We as a Type 0 Civilisation are still having difficulties with the smallest and most common of these after several hundred thousand years of development. Earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, tornadoes and heavy rainfall are still huge challenges not to mention war, prejudice, malnutrition and disease.
It seems we have a long way to go, so imagine how far other life forms would have to develop in order to be able to come and visit us. And having come so far in their development why would they want to come and see us?
A Type I Civilisation would have no problem with the prevention of catastrophic meteor impacts, surviving or preventing ice ages and harnessing all the energy from their sun. This would have taken several times the already several hundred thousand years that we have been around. It seems unlikely that we are going to be able to reach the limits required for us to make the leap to the next level and we shall be wiped out only for it to have to start from scratch once again.
A Type I Civilisation having ensured its survival for so long might, if it has its priorities sorted out, now embark on greater things beyond its own solar system. It might now make the leap to a Type II Civilisation whereby it would now apply its skills to other solar systems in its galaxy, harnessing energy from other stars so that it might survive even greater challenges to its survival; the explosion of a star and the creation of a black hole.
Somewhere along the line here, it might just be possible that means of breaking the universal constants are discovered and traveling at the speed of light or even multiples is the new norm.
A Type III Civilisation would indeed be a formidable species.
An infinitely large universe would now present itself like an open road atlas.
And an infinitely small planet like ours would appear as a diminishing speck of dust. We don't do much to attract a lot of attention; we're not exactly lighting up the skies with our use of energy from our nearest sun let alone other nearby suns.
Such an advanced civilisation might have only one interest in a little planet like ours full of destructive, murdering troglodytes. It might decide, if it could be bothered to slow down on its way through our galaxy, to rescue our planet from its cruel inhabitants by wiping out the human race to ensure the survival of a planet that it might later use for the harvesting of food.
Beware of what you wish for.
*Misinterpretation of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar is the basis for a popular belief that a cataclysm will take place on December 21, 2012. December 21, 2012 is simply the day that the calendar will go to the next b'ak'tun, at Long Count 13.0.0.0.0. The date on which the calendar will go to the next piktun (a complete series of 20 b'ak'tun) at Long Count 1.0.0.0.0.0, will be on October 13, 4772"
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